Global oil prices continue to be the focus of attention of markets and the world economy, affecting various sectors, including energy, transportation and inflation. In the latest analysis, several determinants of oil prices are worth reviewing, including global supply and demand, geopolitical turmoil, and OPEC policies. Global oil demand has experienced significant fluctuations in the last two years. After the COVID-19 pandemic, demand increased in line with economic recovery in many countries. According to the IEA report, global demand is expected to reach nearly 100 million barrels per day in 2023, close to pre-pandemic levels. This increase was driven by the transportation and industrial sectors which began to become active again. However, demand uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and climate policy complicates price projections. On the supply side, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, recently cut production quotas to stabilize prices. This policy was taken in response to falling prices that occurred due to excess supply on the global market. Currently, OPEC+ is focused on maintaining a balance between supply and demand so that prices remain competitive. This decision has the potential to affect oil prices in the short to medium term. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tensions between Russia and Ukraine also have a big influence on oil prices. Sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine caused supply uncertainty, driving price spikes in the market. The development of energy alternatives in access to energy independence is increasingly emphasized, but this transition takes time. Technical analysis shows a fluctuating price pattern, with movements around psychological levels such as $80 per barrel. Many analysts predict that if the price consistently breaks this level, it is likely to rise further. However, a hampered economic recovery could be an obstacle. Global inflation is also a determining factor that must be considered. With rising raw material and transportation prices, pressure on oil prices is increasing. Comments from global central banks regarding monetary policy can influence market expectations, potentially having a knock-on impact on oil prices. Environmental aspects also cannot be ignored, where many countries are starting to commit to reducing carbon emissions. The transition to renewable energy could change the dynamics of the oil market. Investments in clean energy technologies are increasing, and this may lead to a long-term decline in demand for oil. Finally, trader behavior in commodity markets plays a crucial role. Market sentiment, speculation and inventory reports can quickly change the direction of price trends. Viewing inventory data from EIA every week is very important for various stakeholders. Monitoring developments in the oil sector is very important to understand the direction of price trends and their impact on various economic sectors. With all these interacting factors, it is certain that global oil prices will remain an important topic in global economic analysis in the future.
